Policy sources, corrections, and open questions¶
All seven packs are verified against primary sources. Every rule cites the section or page it was read from, names its verifier, and pins the edition.
The unverified machinery — the banner, the status field, --strict and
--require-verified-policy — stays in place and is exercised by a synthetic
test fixture, because it is what keeps the next rule honest.
Everything here was assembled from secondary reporting — vendor blogs, law-firm summaries, consultancy explainers — which is frequently wrong about exactly the details that matter: whether a date binds a requirement or a recommendation, which population it binds, and whether the edition being quoted is current.
Accordingly every unverified rule ships status: needs_verification. cbomctl prints a
banner; --require-verified-policy refuses to run. That is the honest default:
better a tool that admits its rules are unconfirmed than one that renders a
confident verdict from a blog post.
Corrections already applied¶
An independent review found the earlier drafts overstating guidance as law. These are fixed in the packs and in every document; they are recorded because each would have produced a materially misleading verdict.
| # | was | now |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | "BSI mandates hybrid" | TR-02102-1 is a technical guideline that recommends it → binding: guideline_recommendation, hybrid: recommended. The word mandatory is removed everywhere. |
| 2 | "ANSSI requires hybrid" | Strongly recommends, and separately requires it for certain ANSSI certifications → two rules, different binding. |
| 3 | NIST IR 8547 dates quoted as settled | Still an initial public draft (Nov 2024). Dates are proposed; is_draft: true, and any output citing them prints "draft". |
| 4 | "deprecated" used as a synonym for failure | Deprecated ≠ disallowed. Two distinct deadline_state values, modelled separately. |
| 5 | (absent) | EO 14412 added — and it is not a blanket federal PQC mandate. |
| 6 | (absent) | binding field added to the pack schema, precisely because of 1–3. |
1. us-eo14412 — United States, Executive Order 14412 ✅ VERIFIED¶
Verified 2026-09-06 by Sadjad Asadi against the Federal Register text: EO 14412, "Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks", signed June 22 2026, published June 25 2026 — 91 FR 38483, FR doc 2026-12909 — https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2026/06/25/2026-12909.txt
| # | claim | status | where |
|---|---|---|---|
| U1 | Scope is federal HVAs and high impact systems, excluding National Security Systems — not blanket federal PQC | ✅ verified | §4(b)(i) |
| U2 | Key establishment by 2030-12-31 | ✅ verified | §4(b)(ii) |
| U3 | Digital signatures by 2031-12-31 | ✅ verified | §4(b)(iii) |
| U4 | FAR Council to publish a proposed rule requiring covered contractors to comply by 2030-12-31 | ✅ verified | §5(c) |
| U5 | CISA CBOM minimum-elements guidance within 270 days (≈ 2027-03-19) | ✅ verified | §5(d) |
| U6 | Agency PQC migration lead within 30 days (by 2026-07-22) | ✅ verified | §4(a) |
| U7 | The order never uses the word "hybrid" — 0 occurrences | ✅ verified | whole text |
The operative sentence¶
§4(b), one sentence, doing all the work:
"…issue guidance requiring each agency to: (i) review their inventory of HVAs and high impact systems, excluding National Security Systems; (ii) transition all HVAs and high impact systems to use PQC for key establishment by December 31, 2030; (iii) transition all HVAs and high impact systems to use PQC for digital signatures by December 31, 2031"
This is the cleanest primary-source evidence for the urgency asymmetry anywhere
in these packs: one order, one population, consecutive clauses, and signatures
get an extra year. The order gives no reason for the gap, so the pack records
rationale: unstated — the inference is ours, not the document's.
§1 names the mechanism for key establishment: "adversaries collecting United States information now, and decrypting it later once large-scale quantum computers are operational."
Two corrections to how this is usually reported¶
It is not a blanket federal mandate. Secondary coverage routinely renders this as "the US mandates PQC by 2030". The scope is HVAs and high impact systems, and NSS are explicitly excluded (they fall under CNSA 2.0 instead). Running this pack against a commercial system now returns N/A, not PASS — "passes" would read as "you comply" when the truth is "this does not reach you".
The FAR rule is only proposed. §5(c) directs the FAR Council to publish a
proposed rule within 180 days. A proposed rule is not a contractual
obligation, so that rule is warn despite the executive_order binding.
Revisit when the final rule publishes.
Worth watching¶
§5(d): CISA must, by roughly 2027-03-19, publish minimum elements for a cryptographic bill of materials, and those elements "shall enable the automated assessment of the cryptographic assets utilized by a hardware or software element." That may define the input format this tool consumes. It is recorded in the pack's notes rather than as a rule — a rule with no selector would fire on every asset and mask real findings.
2. cnsa-2.0 — United States, NSA ✅ VERIFIED¶
Verified 2026-09-06 by Sadjad Asadi against the primary PDF: "The Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 and Quantum Computing FAQ", U/OO/194427-22 | PP-24-4014 | December 2024 Ver. 2.1.
NSA's servers return HTTP 403 to automated requests; the PDF was downloaded and opened by hand. Every rule cites a page.
| # | claim | status |
|---|---|---|
| C1 | NSS only — "NSA is not using these requirements to dictate to any other entity outside of NSS" | ✅ p. 1 |
| C2 | 2027-01-01 acquisition gate (per CNSSP 15) | ✅ p. 6 |
| C3 | ~~signing/networking exclusive 2030~~ | ❌ not in this document |
| C4 | ~~browsers/cloud/OS exclusive 2033~~ | ❌ not in this document |
| C5 | 2030-12-31 phase-out of equipment that cannot support CNSA 2.0 | ✅ p. 6 |
| C6 | 2031-12-31 CNSA 2.0 mandated for use | ✅ p. 6 |
| C7 | ML-KEM-1024, ML-DSA-87, AES-256, SHA-384/512 "for all classification levels" | ✅ p. 2 |
| C8 | Hybrids: "Do not use … except for those exceptions NSA specifically recommends" | ✅ pp. 19–20 |
| C9 | SLH-DSA "is not part of CNSA and is not approved for any use in NSS" | ✅ p. 8 |
| C10 | LMS/XMSS approved for firmware and software signing only; HSS and XMSSMT "are not allowed" | ✅ pp. 3, 8 |
Two claims removed: there are no category deadlines, and no 2033¶
The pre-release stub carried per-product-category rows — software/firmware signing 2030, browsers and operating systems 2033 — assembled from secondary reporting. Neither is in v2.1. The strings "browser", "operating system" and "networking equipment" do not appear, and "2033" does not appear anywhere in the document.
Those figures come from the September 2022 announcement's chart. The December 2024 FAQ supersedes them with the CNSSP 15 dates:
"CNSSP 15 states that by January 1, 2027, all new acquisitions for NSS will be required to be CNSA 2.0 compliant unless otherwise noted. By December 31, 2030, all equipment and services that cannot support CNSA 2.0 must be phased out unless otherwise noted, and by December 31, 2031, CNSA 2.0 algorithms are mandated for use unless otherwise noted." — p. 6
A useful consequence: the system_category INDETERMINATE machinery is no longer
needed for this pack at all. It still applies to us-eo14412 and eu-roadmap.
C8 — the hybrid position, and an ambiguity worth stating¶
The FAQ answers the hybrid question twice, and the two answers do not carry the same force.
The position question (p. 19):
"NSA has confidence in CNSA 2.0 algorithms and will not require NSS developers to use hybrid certified products for security purposes. However, product availability and interoperability requirements may lead to adopting hybrid solutions."
The other, framed "while waiting for a final NIST post-quantum standard" (p. 20):
"Do not use a hybrid or other non-standardized QR solution on NSS mission systems except for those exceptions NSA specifically recommends to meet standardization or interoperability requirements. … Except as noted above, hybrid solutions will not be integrated into eventual deployable solutions."
The ambiguity: the second question's premise — waiting for a final NIST standard — arguably expired when FIPS 203/204/205 were finalised in August 2024, four months before this edition published. Its closing sentence, though, is unconditional and forward-looking.
Resolved 2026-09-06: encoded at the stronger reading, and marked
interpretation: contested so the fork is visible in every output.
Three reasons for the stronger reading, all from the document:
- Ver. 2.1 is dated December 2024 — four months after FIPS 203/204/205 were finalised — and the document was demonstrably revised in that window. It states "NSA clarified the CNSA 2.0 language when the FIPS documents were published" (p. 4) and discusses HashML-DSA (p. 9), a FIPS 204 variant that only exists as a topic post-publication. NSA had the opportunity to delete or rewrite the "while waiting" question and did not.
- The closing sentence is unconditional. "Except as noted above, hybrid solutions will not be integrated into eventual deployable solutions" is forward-looking, not scoped to an interim.
- The IKEv2 carve-out is framed as an exception NSA specifically recommends, which only makes sense if the default is "do not".
Not established: whether that answer is verbatim carry-over from Ver. 2.0
(April 2024). The FAQ carries no revision history, so the comparison could
not be made from this document alone. If it is carry-over the argument is
weaker, though it remains the operative published text. Recorded in the rule's
interpretation_note.
And the encoding is disclosed rather than asserted. The rule carries
interpretation: contested and alt_reading: silent, and any conflict it
drives prints both outcomes — under the encoded reading no configuration
satisfies everyone; under the alternative a hybrid would, at a cost. The
uncontested half of NSA's position ("will not require") is a separate rule,
cnsa2-hybrid-not-required, so the matrix keeps an anchor for a reader who
rejects the stronger one.
Scope limits the stakes either way: this binds NSS mission systems only. For a non-NSS reader the whole pack returns N/A regardless of which reading wins.
NSA's reasoning is cost, not doubt about the benefit — which is the same argument ASD makes:
"Because more security products fail due to implementation or configuration errors than failures in their underlying cryptographic algorithms, spending limited resources to add cryptographic complexity can at times weaken security rather than improve it." — p. 19
The named exception is IKEv2 (p. 20), and it is a message-size constraint, not a security judgement: ML-KEM-1024's public key does not fit, so NSA's profile keeps CNSA 1.0 key establishment "fortified by key establishment using ML-KEM-1024". Encoded as its own rule so an IKEv2 hybrid does not inherit the prohibition.
C9/C10 — the second contradiction, on hash-based signatures¶
"Q: Can I use SLH-DSA (aka SPHINCS+) to sign software? A: While SLH-DSA is hash-based, it is not part of CNSA and is not approved for any use in NSS." — p. 8
BSI §5.3.4 and ANSSI §2/§4 both explicitly permit hash-based signatures standalone, exempting them from their hybrid recommendations. NSA does not approve SLH-DSA at all. Same algorithm family, opposite treatment, and entirely independent of the hybrid disagreement.
NSA also splits the family further than anyone else: LMS and XMSS are approved but only "for digitally signing firmware and software", with LMS SHA-256/192 preferred, while "the multi-tree algorithms HSS and XMSSMT are not allowed" (p. 8).
The three-step gradient, now fully verified¶
| stance | jurisdictions | consequence |
|---|---|---|
recommended |
BSI, ANSSI, EU roadmap | — |
not_recommended — discouraged, permitted |
ASD | a satisfies-all target exists, at a documented cost |
not_permitted_except_interop |
NSA | no single construction satisfies everyone |
Still open¶
- Whether v2.1 is current. Check for a later revision; NSA rehosts these.
- Whether the C8 answer is carry-over from v2.0. Would need the April 2024 edition to settle; it would weaken, not overturn, the reading.
- Watch whether a future revision drops the "while waiting" framing. If it
does,
interpretationmoves tosettled.
3. bsi-de — Germany, BSI ✅ VERIFIED¶
Verified 2026-09-06 by Sadjad Asadi against the primary PDF.
Source: BSI TR-02102-1, "Cryptographic Mechanisms: Recommendations and Key Lengths", Version 2026-01, dated January 23, 2026, English edition — https://www.bsi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/BSI/Publications/TechGuidelines/TG02102/BSI-TR-02102-1.pdf
| # | claim | status | where |
|---|---|---|---|
| B1 | Recommends, does not mandate. Operative verb throughout is recommends → guideline_recommendation |
✅ verified | §2.1, §5.3.4 |
| B2 | Sole use of classical key agreement recommended only until 2031-12-31 | ✅ verified | §2.1 |
| B3 | Very high protection requirements: transition by 2030-12-31 | ✅ verified | §2.1 |
| B4 | Classical signatures recommended only until 2035-12-31, following the EU roadmap | ✅ verified | §2.1 |
| B5 | Quantum-safe key agreement should be used in hybrid form | ✅ verified | §2.1, §2.2 |
| B6 | Quantum-safe signatures recommended only in combination with a classical signature | ✅ verified | §5.3.4 |
| B7 | Hash-based signatures may be used standalone — an explicit carve-out from B6 | ✅ verified | §5.3.4 |
The operative sentences¶
B2 / B3 — §2.1:
"The sole use of classic key agreement mechanisms is only recommended until the end of 2031, see also Section 2.3. For applications with very high protection requirements, the transition to quantum-safe mechanisms should already take place by the end of 2030."
This settles the earlier open question: 2030 and 2031 are two distinct deadlines by protection level, not a conflation of the 2025-01 and 2026-01 editions.
B5 — §2.1:
"The quantum-safe mechanisms recommended in Section 2.4 should be used in 'hybrid' form, i.e., in a suitable combination with a classical method."
B6 — §5.3.4:
"This Technical Guideline recommends the use of a quantum-safe signature scheme only in combination with a classic signature scheme. Hybridisation should be implemented in such a way that the hybrid signature scheme is secure as long as at least one of the schemes is secure."
B7, the carve-out — §5.3.4:
"The security of hash-based signature schemes is only based on complexity-theoretical assumptions about cryptographic hash functions. Therefore, hash-based signatures can, provided that the implementation security of stateful and stateless hash-based mechanisms is carefully considered, in principle also be used alone (i.e. not in hybrid form)."
A secondary source we can now show to be wrong¶
A widely-circulated PQShield/ECCG-derived summary states that BSI recommends
classical algorithms in conjunction with all PQC algorithms, including
hash-based ones. The primary text says the opposite for that specific family:
SLH-DSA, LMS and XMSS may be used alone. The pack encodes this as
applies_to.exclude_algorithm on bsi-hybrid-signatures, plus an explicit
permission rule.
This is the clearest available argument for the primary-source rule. A pack built from that summary would have warned on every standalone SLH-DSA signature in Germany, incorrectly, and no one would have caught it.
What BSI confirms about the two axes¶
Both are stated in the guideline itself, which is the best possible evidence for modelling them separately:
Urgency — §2.1 names the mechanism and the asymmetry:
"…encrypted data can already be stored for later decryption ('Store Now, Decrypt Later')." "In contrast to key agreement, classic signatures are still trustworthy as long as no cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists."
Assurance — §5.3.4's hybridisation requirement is about the new scheme possibly being wrong ("secure as long as at least one of the schemes is secure"), not about timing. Hence 2035 for signatures against 2030/2031 for key agreement, and a hybrid recommendation covering both.
Consequence for the conflict matrix¶
F4 is not an ANSSI quirk. Both BSI and ANSSI recommend hybrid for signatures; NSA requires neither hybrid nor permits sub-1024 ML-KEM; ASD recommends against hybrids for both purposes. The split is Europe versus the anglophone agencies, on both rows of a purpose × jurisdiction grid — pending ANSSI's own primary-source confirmation (§4, F4).
Still open¶
- Whether BSI's forward-looking statement — §2.1: "In future versions, signature methods that are not quantum-safe will therefore only be recommended for hybrid use" — should be encoded now as a scheduled change or left until the edition that makes it operative. Currently not encoded.
- §2.4 lists FrodoKEM, Classic McEliece, ML-KEM and HQC as recommended
quantum-safe key agreement mechanisms. HQC is not yet a final FIPS, so it
must not appear as a
migration_target; BSI's acceptance of FrodoKEM and Classic McEliece is jurisdiction-specific and not yet encoded.
4. anssi-fr — France, ANSSI ✅ VERIFIED (5 of 6 rules)¶
Verified 2026-09-06 by Sadjad Asadi against the primary PDF: "ANSSI views on the Post-Quantum Cryptography transition (2023 follow up)", December 21, 2023 — https://cyber.gouv.fr/publications/anssi-views-post-quantum-cryptography-transition
| # | claim | status | where |
|---|---|---|---|
| F3 | Hybridation emphasised as necessary wherever PQ mitigation is needed | ✅ verified | §1.1 |
| F4 | The requirement covers signatures | ✅ verified | §3.2, §4 |
| F4b | Hash-based signatures exempt — hybridation optional for XMSS/LMS/SPHINCS+ | ✅ verified | §2, §4 |
| F7 | For a security visa, hybridation is mandatory — "shall implement" | ✅ verified | §4 |
| F2 | Hybrid recommended especially for protection lasting past 2030 | ✅ verified | §1.2 |
| F1 | 2027 certification cut-off | ❌ not in this document | — |
The operative sentences¶
F3 — §1.1:
"ANSSI still strongly emphasizes the necessity of hybridation wherever post-quantum mitigation is needed both in the short and medium term."
F4 / F4b — §4, on end products:
"any product that includes post-quantum mitigation shall implement hybridation except if the quantum mitigation only relies on hash-based signatures like XMSS, LMS or SPHINCS+ for which hybridation is optional"
F7 — §4, on the security-visa process:
the evaluation tasks "comprise an analysis of all cryptographic algorithms including the post-quantum algorithms with mandatory hybridation"
"Mandatory" and "shall" are ANSSI's own words, but they sit inside the
security-visa process. Outside it the position paper recommends. The pack
models these as two rules with different binding — certification_requirement
and guideline_recommendation — because they bind different populations, and a
tool that merged them would tell an uncertified French vendor it had failed a
mandate that does not reach it.
F4 resolved: it is an assurance argument, and ANSSI says so¶
The question that had been open since the first draft — whether ANSSI's signature stance is a harvest argument or a maturity one — is answered in §1.1:
"even if the post-quantum algorithms have gained a lot of attention, they are still not mature enough to solely ensure the security. For example, several post-quantum schemes have suffered from classical attacks in the past years, e.g. [3, 6]."
Reference [3] is Beullens, "Breaking Rainbow takes a weekend on a laptop".
So the algorithm_maturity rationale is not our inference — ANSSI cites the
Rainbow break as its reason. This is primary-source support for modelling
urgency and assurance as separate axes.
§1.1 also notes the alignment explicitly: "This position is aligned with the one of other European cybersecurity agencies like BSI in Germany."
Two jurisdictions, one carve-out, independently confirmed¶
BSI §5.3.4 and ANSSI §2/§4 both exempt hash-based signatures from the hybrid
recommendation, for the same stated reason — their security rests only on
hash-function assumptions. Encoded identically in both packs via
applies_to.exclude_algorithm. That two independent authorities landed on the
same exception is a good sign the reading is right.
Still open¶
- F1 — the 2027 certification rule was REMOVED on 2026-09-06. The 2023
follow-up describes a 3-phase visa roadmap with phase-2 visas "expected to be
delivered around 2024-2025", and says ANSSI is "speeding-up the original
agenda". The 2027 date appears only in 2026 press coverage and in no ANSSI
document we have read. Leaving it in the pack as
needs_verificationwould have been defensible, but in a pack whose entire value is citation discipline a press-sourced rule is a liability — a reader who does not checkstatussees a cited deadline that no source supports. Restore it if a primary ANSSI communication turns up; the reasoning is recorded here so the removal is auditable rather than silent. - The 2022 position paper (referenced as [1]) has not been read. F5's three-phase structure and any FrodoKEM preference (F6) live there. §2 of the follow-up does describe FrodoKEM as "a more conservative variant of CRYSTALS-Kyber" but states no preference ordering, so F6 is not encoded.
5. asd-au — Australia, ASD / ACSC ✅ VERIFIED¶
Verified 2026-09-06 by Sadjad Asadi against the ISM Guidelines for
Cryptography on cyber.gov.au, page last updated 03 September 2026 (controls
dated to Sep-26). curl is refused by that host; read via a browser.
| # | claim | status |
|---|---|---|
| A1 | RSA, DH, ECDH, ECDSA each "will not be approved beyond 2030" | ✅ verified |
| A2 | Hybrid schemes "not recommended; however, it is not prohibited" | ✅ verified |
| A3 | ML-KEM-768 not approved beyond 2030; ML-KEM-1024 preferred | ✅ verified |
| A4 | ML-DSA-65 not approved beyond 2030; ML-DSA-87 preferred | ✅ verified (new) |
| A5 | SHA-224/256, AES-128/192, HMAC-SHA256 not approved beyond 2030 | ✅ verified (new) |
| A6 | New equipment must support ML-DSA-87, ML-KEM-1024, SHA-384/512, AES-256 by 2030 | ✅ verified |
A2 verbatim, and why it matters¶
"The use of post-quantum traditional hybrid schemes is not recommended; however, it is not prohibited."
That is exactly the wording the conflict analysis needs: discouraged, not forbidden, which is why the cell is WARN and why a satisfies-all target still exists at a documented cost.
ASD is not disagreeing about facts — it is pricing the same trade differently¶
This is the most useful thing the primary read produced, and it changes the launch article. ASD grants the European premise:
"Generally, such schemes have the advantage of the security offered by the traditional cryptographic algorithm if the post-quantum cryptographic algorithm is vulnerable to an implementation flaw or new attack."
That is precisely BSI's and ANSSI's argument. ASD then weighs it against "increased complexity, making maintenance, analysis and secure implementation more difficult, as well as having greater computational and bandwidth overheads", and adds a point the Europeans do not address:
"in the presence of a CRQC, the security of such schemes is reduced to that provided by the post-quantum cryptographic algorithm. As such, there is no practical value in the use of such schemes in the presence of a CRQC."
So the dispute is a cost-benefit judgement on agreed facts, not a factual
disagreement. Encoded as rationale: algorithm_maturity on the ASD rule too —
same axis, opposite conclusion. An article that frames this as "Australia
thinks hybrids are unsafe" would be wrong.
A5 is stricter than anyone else, and explicitly not a quantum argument¶
ASD sunsets SHA-256, AES-128 and HMAC-SHA256 by 2030 "for interoperability and maintainability reasons", while stating plainly:
"The impact of quantum attacks on hashing algorithms and symmetric cryptographic algorithms, such as SHA-2 and AES, is unlikely to be felt for some time."
Our scorer bands these low on quantum risk, which stays correct — the ASD
deadline is real, and the quantum urgency is not. Two different things, and the
matrix shows both without conflating them.
Still open¶
- Staleness is a live risk here. The ISM is revised roughly monthly.
source_editionpins 2026-09-03; re-verify quarterly. - Whether ISM controls bind non-government Australian entities, which would
change
bindingfromguideline_recommendationto something stronger for that population.
6. eu-roadmap — European Union, NIS Cooperation Group ✅ VERIFIED¶
Verified 2026-09-06 by Sadjad Asadi against the primary PDF: "A Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography", Part 1, Version 1.1, dated 11.06.2025 — https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/coordinated-implementation-roadmap-transition-post-quantum-cryptography
(A companion FAQ, NIS Cooperation Group, 15.04.2026, also exists and is not yet mined. Its §2.1 addresses store-now-decrypt-later directly and is worth a second pass.)
| # | claim | status |
|---|---|---|
| E1 | Member States initiate a national PQC strategy by end of 2026 | ✅ verified |
| E2 | High-risk use cases transitioned no later than end of 2030 | ✅ verified |
| E3 | By 2035 "completed for as many systems as practically feasible" | ✅ verified |
| E4 | It recommends; non-binding on operators | ✅ verified |
| E5 | Medium-risk: not stand-alone after end of 2035 | ✅ verified (new) |
| E6 | Hybrid is recommended | ✅ verified — the stub was wrong |
| E7 | Firmware/software update mechanisms should use PQ signatures | ✅ verified (new) |
E6 — a correction to our own stub¶
The stub shipped hybrid: silent, on the assumption that the roadmap did not
address it. It does:
"it is recommended to use standardised and tested hybrid solutions, whenever feasible and suitable. In particular, whenever a quantum-vulnerable public-key cryptographic mechanism, such as RSA or any discrete logarithm based mechanism, is currently used, replacing it by a standardized hybrid combination which includes PQC should be considered."
Silence was an assumption, and it was wrong. This matters: with the EU roadmap corrected, all three European sources recommend hybrid — BSI, ANSSI and the NIS CG — against ASD's "not recommended". The Europe-versus-anglophone split is now verified from three independent primary documents rather than two.
Unlike BSI and ANSSI, the roadmap gives no stated reason for preferring
hybrids, so rationale is unstated rather than assumed to match them.
E2 / E5 verbatim¶
"For high-risk use cases, quantum-vulnerable public-key mechanisms shall not be used stand-alone after the end of 2030, analogously after the end of 2035 for medium-risk use cases."
Note "stand-alone" — consistent with E6, the expected replacement is a hybrid.
E7 supports our signature carve-out¶
"products entering the market with an expected lifetime beyond 2030 should be upgradable to PQC and … the upgrade mechanism for software and firmware upgrades should incorporate post-quantum signature schemes for integrity and authenticity."
Primary-source support for the long-lived-verification rule in our scoring: firmware signing is exactly the case where a signature's trust horizon, not the data's confidentiality horizon, drives urgency.
Still open¶
- Risk tiers (high / medium / low) are not derivable from a CBOM, same
problem as the CNSA categories. Declared as
system_category; undeclared means INDETERMINATE. Confirm the roadmap's own sector list matches our enum. - Whether NIS2 or DORA make any of these dates binding for in-scope entities. If so, that is a separate pack, not a change to this one.
- Part 2 of the roadmap, and the 2026 FAQ, are unread.
7. nist-ir8547 — United States, NIST ✅ VERIFIED (as a draft)¶
Verified 2026-09-06 by Sadjad Asadi against the primary PDF: NIST IR 8547 ipd (Initial Public Draft), November 2024, Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards — https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/ir/2024/NIST.IR.8547.ipd.pdf
Verified as a draft: the reading is confirmed; the status of the document is
not. Every rule carries is_draft: true, and all four reporters print a draft
notice when one is cited.
Deprecated is not disallowed¶
NIST's own glossary, quoted in the rules:
deprecated — "The algorithm and key length may be used, but the user must accept some security risk." disallowed — "The algorithm or key length is no longer allowed for applying cryptographic protection."
These are modelled as separate deadline_state values. Collapsing them into one
failure is the single most commonly misstated point in PQC compliance, and it is
the subject of article 2.
The tables, exactly¶
Table 2 (signatures: ECDSA, EdDSA, RSA) and Table 4 (key establishment: finite-field DH/MQV, EC DH/MQV, RSA) have identical structure:
| security strength | transition |
|---|---|
| 112 bits | Deprecated after 2030 and Disallowed after 2035 |
| ≥ 128 bits | Disallowed after 2035 — no 2030 deprecation |
This is the detail that almost every summary loses. "RSA is deprecated in 2030"
is true only at 112-bit strength (RSA-2048). RSA-3072 and P-256 are not
deprecated in 2030 under this draft — they are only disallowed after 2035. A
tool that warns on all RSA in 2030 is wrong, and a pinned test asserts our
deprecation rules carry security_level: ["112"].
Note also that EdDSA appears only at ≥128 bits, so it has no 2030 row at all.
Still open¶
- The draft's comment period closed 2025-01-10. Check whether a final IR 8547
has been published; if so this pack rebases and
is_draftclears. - Tables 6 and 7 (block ciphers, hash functions) are not yet encoded — they are
Grover-scale concerns and score
lowin this tool regardless, but the pack should carry them for completeness.
8. Cross-cutting¶
NIST IR 8547 — draft, and two distinct states. Still an initial public
draft (Nov 2024). Its 2030 deprecated / 2035 disallowed dates for RSA,
ECDSA, ECDH, DSA and FFDH at 112-bit and ≥128-bit security levels are
proposed. Encoded binding: guideline_recommendation, is_draft: true, and
any output citing them prints "draft". Deprecated and disallowed are
modelled as separate deadline_state values — an algorithm may be deprecated
(discouraged, still permitted) years before it is disallowed, and collapsing
them into one failure is the most commonly misstated point in this space.
NIST SP 800-227 (final, September 2025) is the citation for hybrid and
multi-algorithm KEM constructions. Cite it wherever a pack's
migration_target.construction is hybrid.
HQC was selected in March 2025 but is not yet a final FIPS. It must not appear as a migration target in any pack until it is. BSI reportedly approves FrodoKEM and Classic McEliece alongside the NIST set — jurisdiction-specific algorithm acceptance is real and the packs must not assume the NIST list is universal.
The CRQC year (Z). Default 2035, matching the NSM-10 / EU horizon. A policy planning date, not a forecast; stated wherever used and stamped into output. Confirm you are comfortable shipping that default.
Staleness. Packs warn past 180 days since last_verified. A scheduled CI
job opens an issue. Regulatory dates move, and silently serving stale rules is
worse than serving none.
Sign-off. These packs make compliance-adjacent assertions under your name.
CONTRIBUTING.md should require a primary-source citation, a binding
classification, and a named verifier for any new or changed rule, with a
dedicated PR template. Contributors adding packs clear the same bar.
Verification log¶
A rule may only lose needs_verification with a row here.
| rule | verified by | date | primary source + section | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
bsi-classical-key-agreement-sunset |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | TR-02102-1 v2026-01 §2.1 | confirmed, 2031-12-31 |
bsi-high-protection-2030 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | TR-02102-1 v2026-01 §2.1 | confirmed, distinct from 2031 |
bsi-hybrid-key-agreement |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | TR-02102-1 v2026-01 §2.1, §2.2 | confirmed, recommends |
bsi-classical-signatures-2035 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | TR-02102-1 v2026-01 §2.1 | confirmed, 2035-12-31 |
bsi-hybrid-signatures |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | TR-02102-1 v2026-01 §5.3.4 | confirmed, recommends |
bsi-hash-based-standalone-permitted |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | TR-02102-1 v2026-01 §5.3.4 | carve-out confirmed; contradicts a common secondary summary |
anssi-hybridation-necessary |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | ANSSI 2023 follow-up §1.1 | confirmed; rationale is maturity, citing the Rainbow break |
anssi-hybridation-signatures |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | ANSSI 2023 follow-up §3.2, §4 | confirmed, covers signatures |
anssi-hash-based-hybridation-optional |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | ANSSI 2023 follow-up §2, §4 | carve-out confirmed, matches BSI |
anssi-visa-hybridation-mandatory |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | ANSSI 2023 follow-up §4 | confirmed "mandatory"/"shall", scoped to security visas |
anssi-longlived-protection-2030 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | ANSSI 2023 follow-up §1.2 | confirmed |
anssi-certification-2027 |
— | — | — | not found in the 2023 follow-up; stays unverified |
eo14412-key-establishment-2030 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | 91 FR 38483 §4(b)(ii) | confirmed |
eo14412-signatures-2031 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | 91 FR 38483 §4(b)(iii) | confirmed, one year later than key establishment |
eo14412-far-contractors-2030 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | 91 FR 38483 §5(c) | confirmed; rule is proposed, so WARN |
nist-112bit-signatures-deprecated-2030 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | IR 8547 ipd §4.1.1 Table 2 | confirmed; 112-bit only |
nist-signatures-disallowed-2035 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | IR 8547 ipd §4.1.1 Table 2 | confirmed, all strengths |
nist-112bit-key-establishment-deprecated-2030 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | IR 8547 ipd §4.1.2 Table 4 | confirmed; 112-bit only |
nist-key-establishment-disallowed-2035 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | IR 8547 ipd §4.1.2 Table 4 | confirmed, all strengths |
asd-classical-asymmetric-2030 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | ISM 2026-09-03, Guidelines for Cryptography | confirmed, each algorithm named separately |
asd-hybrid-not-recommended |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | ISM 2026-09-03 | confirmed verbatim; ASD grants the European premise and prices it differently |
asd-mlkem768-2030 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | ISM 2026-09-03 | confirmed |
asd-mldsa65-2030 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | ISM 2026-09-03 | confirmed, new |
asd-sha256-aes128-2030 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | ISM 2026-09-03 | confirmed, new; explicitly not a quantum argument |
asd-pqc-support-by-2030 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | ISM 2026-09-03 | confirmed |
eu-high-risk-2030 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | EU Roadmap Part 1 v1.1 | confirmed |
eu-medium-risk-2035 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | EU Roadmap Part 1 v1.1 | confirmed, new |
eu-hybrid-recommended |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | EU Roadmap Part 1 v1.1 | stub said silent; the roadmap recommends hybrid |
eu-transition-start-2026 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | EU Roadmap Part 1 v1.1 | confirmed |
eu-remainder-2035 |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | EU Roadmap Part 1 v1.1 | confirmed |
eu-firmware-upgrade-signatures |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | EU Roadmap Part 1 v1.1 | confirmed, new |
cnsa2-* (all 9 rules) |
Sadjad Asadi | 2026-09-06 | CNSA 2.0 FAQ v2.1, pp. 2, 6, 8, 19–20 | confirmed; 2 stub claims removed as absent from v2.1 |